Plenary to vote on second Von der Leyen term; new EU legislature led by EPP

Brussels – There is a team of commissioners; the Commission now needs to be formed. The agreement reached at the end of intense negotiations between the three primary forces in Parliament – Popular (EPP), Socialists (S&D), and Liberals (Re) – paves the way for the second von der Leyen term. It was formalized in a written platform outlining the framework for the next five years, which, however, begins with challenges and uncertainties that are likely to drag on.

In the fragile marriage between Populars and Socialists that keeps together the majority, the crucial component has already failed: trust. It became clear just minutes after drafting the pact with the ‘package deal’ logic meant to lay down arms and give the green light to all six executive vice presidents and Hungarian Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi stumbling over mutual suspicions. So, the approval by the coordinators of the relevant committees was blocked for hours because, before the vote on Teresa Ribera, deputies wanted to ensure that Varhelyi’s assignments were cut down. Until the Spanish socialist was approved late into the night, the socialists refused to proceed with the vote on Raffaele Fitto.

However, there is an all-out clash on Ribera, currently Minister of Ecological Transition in the Sanchez government and nominated to become executive vice-president for Transition as the Populars and conservatives would like to put in writing her resignation in the event of ‘investigations’ into the DANA aftermath and deaths in Valencia, a language that Socialists, Liberals, and Greens consider too harsh. In the end, the Populars gave in on Ribera and, despite resistance from the fierce Spanish Partido Popular delegation, agreed to soften the language, allowing the Socialists to support Raffaele Fitto’s vice presidency. In both cases, the assessment letters accompanying the go-ahead for the candidates include an annex: Parliament asks the Spaniard for “a clear and unequivocal commitment” to resign in the event of legal proceedings against her “that could compromise the integrity of the College.” It asks the Fratelli d’Italia commissioner designate to be “fully independent from his national government as required by the Treaties and fully committed to applying the rule of law conditionality mechanism and to working on strengthening the rule of law in the Union.”

Nevertheless, there is no shortage of discontent in the Socialist ranks: The French delegation (13 seats) remains opposed to the vice-presidency for Fitto, whom they would like as a simple commissioner. It does not subscribe to the political pact, marking an internal rift within the group. “We are acting responsibly for the stability of the EU, which is at risk,” Iratxe Garcia Perez, president of the S&D, said at the end of the negotiations. 

Socialists make the line of responsibility prevail as they see the need for the EU to have a Commission up and running and operational as soon as possible. The continuing Russian-Ukrainian war, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States, widespread uncertainties holding back growth, and geopolitical tensions make it necessary to have a functioning Europe, with Socialists and Liberals offering the image of forces ready to play the role of counterweight to the rightward thrusts of the EPP.

Give green light from relevant parliamentary committees to new European Commissioners. Final vote next week. Congratulations and best wishes to all, especially the Italian Commissioner @RaffaeleFitto

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– Paolo Gentiloni (@PaoloGentiloni) November 20, 2024

Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni breathes a sigh of relief. He sees the final go-ahead for the start of the new European legislature and extends his customary good wishes to his Italian successor in the college. Having secured support at the level of group leaders and coordinators of parliamentary committees, the Plenary will hold a confidence vote for the entire team of Ursula von der Leyen, outgoing and incoming president of the EU executive, possibly at next week’s plenary session (Nov. 25-28), which may allow the new Commission to take office on Dec. 1. 

Everyone is happy, especially the Populars. The EPP showed strength, getting what it wanted and also succeeding in souring relations within allies and among parties less inclined to collaborate with the Conservatives (ECR), Sovereignists (PfE), and the far right (ESN). The Socialists have internal fringes; the Greens do not like the agreement because, group leader Bas Eickout denounces, “it signals a dangerous willingness to normalize the far right.” A right-wing with which the EPP is not excluded from once again flirting and working.

In the incoming legislature, there will be many files — all different — and variable and diverse majorities cannot be ruled out, as seen in the deforestation regulation. The tug-of-war over nominations leaves an image of an EPP that leads, with Socialists and Liberals struggling, victims of the law of numbers, confirming unequivocally that the European Parliament has shifted to the right. The alliance set down in writing seems weak, and the need to formalize it – without setting any clear boundary for the majority – seems to confirm this. The new Commission, however, can be formed. It is the only news that Europe is interested in. Looking at its genesis, it may not be good.