EU deforestation law under attack. The EPP and the far right have the numbers to water it down (and they know it)

Brussels – The legge EU on deforestation is at a decisive crossroads. But there’s more: tomorrow’s (Nov. 14) vote in the Euro Chamber will not only determine whether the crackdown on products from over-exploitation of forests will be delayed by a year or more, but it is a test case for the Green Deal‘s staying power in the new European legislature. Much depends on the European People’s Party (EPP), which has proposed several amendments to water down the text and which-if it does not backtrack-will reveal the existence of a majority on the right capable of taking a stab at any proceeding related to the green transition. With the complicity of Ursula von der Leyen herself.

The numbers for an alternative majority to the pro-European one are there, already renamed the ‘Venezuela majority’ since vote September on the resolution condemning the Maduro regime supported by the EPP, Conservatives, Patriots and Sovereignists. Now, however, at stake is the trademark of the first von der Leyen Commission, that Green Deal strongly advocated by the EPP leader herself. The point is that by reopening the debate on a regulation that has already been in place since the summer of 2023, the EU leader now risks uncovering Pandora’s box.

In October, the European Commission ha proposto to delay by one year the implementation of the deforestation law-now around the corner, scheduled for Dec. 30, 2024-giving in to pressure from the increasingly vocal wing of the European right, led by the president’s own party. Specifically, the provision called Eudr (Regulation on Deforestation-free products), is supposed to prevent the entry into the single market of products that result from the over-exploitation of forested areas, imposing greater control of their supply chain on companies.

A squeeze that affects palm oil, wood, beef, and rubber in particular, but also several associated materials, such as leather, chocolate, furniture, printed paper, and charcoal. According to the FAO, more than 420 million hectares of forest have gone up in smoke over the past 30 years due to deforestation. And through its consumption,the EU is responsible for about 10 percent of global deforestation.

Having received the yes of the member states on a postponement deemed reasonable to allow international partners and European companies to adapt to the new provisions, the ball was once again back in the Eurochamber. Taken immediately by the EPP, which proposed 15 additional amendments to the Eudr. Amendments that betray the Commission’s promise of “not wanting to touch the substance” of the regulation, reiterated again yesterday by a Brussels spokesman.

First and foremost, the populars want an extra year, then a two-year deferral from the original date of Dec. 30, 2024. In the other amendments, the gist is the call to exclude traders from almost all supply chain control obligations and the introduction of a fourth category of countries-alongside low-, medium-, and high-risk “no-risk” states. Countries from which products could continue to enter the single market without new safeguards related to deforestation risk.

If even one of the amendments passes, then interinstitutional negotiations with the European Commission and the Council of the EU would be reopened once again. With the executive having the facility to withdraw its proposed amendment to the regulation at any time. That is, if the will is not lacking, because then even the one-year postponement would be skipped.

The EPP claims it “does not want to kill the deforestation law,” but it represents “a bureaucratic monster that risks overburdening EU farmers, businesses and trading partners with excessive red tape.” But alarm in the pro-European majority is high, all the more so in the midst of the tensions ongoing confirmation of the EU commissioners appointed by von der Leyen. In a statement, the Social Democrats (S&d) group said-while “recognizing the need for the one-year postponement”-that it “strongly opposes” the EPP amendments that seek to “water down” the Eudr provisions. “Should these amendments pass, we call on Ursula von der Leyen to completely withdraw the postponement proposal,” is the Socialists’ appeal.

Of the same opinion are the Greens, who in July supported von der Leyen’s reelection subject to a guarantee of no backtracking on the Green Deal. According to the environmental group, the EPP’s move is “a warning bell of what could happen in the coming years if we call into question the Green Deal texts.” To the majority allies’ criticism, EPP Vice-President Jeroen Lenaers responded trumpetingly from the Brussels hemicycle: “Our amendments improve the law, don’t vote for them if you don’t like them,” he said, on the strength of the numbers that would allow the EPP to pass the amendments with the discounted support of the three far-right groups.

If on the left and right of the Populars the behavior in tomorrow’s vote has already been made explicit or is largely predictable – with the exception of the Liberals, who on the EPP amendments could split -, the real unknown is precisely the 188 MEPs of the Populars. For the ‘Venezuela majority’ to work,the Populars cannot afford so many franchi tiratori within the group. And not all national delegations, including that of Forza Italia, may want to support all the amendments proposed by their group.

Meanwhile, in the run-up to the vote, several international organizations and large industrial consortiums have come to the defense of the law. From WWF to Greenpeace, but also Ferrero, Nestlé, and Unilever. The Cocoa Coalition, which includes the Alba-based multinational and other industry giants, “takes note of the Commission to delay the implementation of the Eudr by twelve months” and calls for it “to be adopted as quickly as possible, without changes, to give companies maximum certainty on the revised timetable.” Again, the Cocoa Coalition said it was “firmly opposed to reopening negotiations on the content” of the law.

In the final hours before the vote, scheduled for tomorrow around 11 a.m., the groups are looking for a last-minute agreement. Nor can it be ruled out that they may eventually decide to postpone the vote on postponement.