The National Rally wins the first round of France’s legislative elections. Republican Front to the test of unity

Brussels – The expected victory for the far right in the first round of legislative elections in France arrived. The National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, allied with Republican President Eric Ciotti, won 33.2 percent of the vote. The Left Front trails by five percentage points at 28.1 percent, and the coalition of President Macron, Ensemble, by more than 10 points, at 21 percent.

But the record turnout, with two out of three eligible voters going to the polls, is a mixed blessing for Le Pen: on the one hand, it makes the result even more significant. On the other, given the rules of the French electoral system, a large number of candidates qualified for the second round. Only 76 of the 577 seats up for renewal in the National Assembly were assigned in the first round. From this perspective, the gap between the two main camps is narrowing: National Rally (RN) candidates have been elected in 39 constituencies, and those of the New Popular Front (NFP) in 32.

Then, there are 190 constituencies where the second round will be a duel between two candidates. Of these, 67 seats are in the balance between RN and NFP. But the game will be played in as many as 306 districts – in 2022, there had been only 7 – in which the polls have configured a three-way runoff. In five districts, four candidates secured the second round.

This figure shows the extent of the uncertainty surrounding next Sunday’s vote and the possible scenarios in the National Assembly. Here —  especially in the 244 constituencies where RN, NFP, and Ensemble will be opposed, and in the 46 where the Republicans will also have a say — will be decided if and who will achieve the 289 seats needed to obtain a majority in the French Parliament. So much so that even the projections of the most authoritative institutes this morning paint a range of between 240 and 310 seats for Le Pen‘s far-right.

Already last night, the first calls for withdrawal began: the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, assured that his party – a pillar of the left-wing front – will withdraw its candidates where it came in third and where the far right is leading in the first round, securing the vote for Macron’s liberal coalition. “Not one vote will go to the RN. Wherever we come third, we will withdraw our candidate,” Mélenchon declared from Paris in a Place de la Republique packed with progressive supporters.

 More ambiguous is the position of the governing alliance. Macron called for a “Republican union,” asking his people to study each of France’s constituencies to find alliances “on a case-by-case basis” to put up a wall against the far right. But some, including Edouard Philippe, leader of the center-right Horizons party, said they are willing to withdraw in favor of a left-wing candidate unless it is a candidate from La France Insoumise. The ‘Gaullist’ Republicans, those who did not follow Ciotti, announced that they would not give its voters any indication.

On the evening of July 7, the scenarios on the horizon are diverse and uncertain in Paris. Marine Le Pen’s dauphin, Jordan Bardella, could become Prime Minister with an absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly, forcing Macron into a very uncomfortable cohabitation. If, on the other hand, the far right gains only a relative majority, France would risk ungovernability, with any RN legislative proposal at risk of being rejected by the opposition. There is a third scenario: should the calls for withdrawal by the leftist leaders and Macron hold up, the Popular Front could win a majority, even a relative one. In that case, the doors of the French government would surprisingly open to a leftist Premier.