Brussels – The new legislature officially kicks off in Germany, where the post-Nazi ultra-right AfD has doubled its seats and, together with the radical left, holds a bloc minority that may stand in the way of new constitutional reforms (such as the one on the debt brake just approved by the outgoing parliament). Meanwhile, the first phase of negotiations to form the new government has concluded, but the hard part for incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz begins now.
The Math in Parliament
The 21st term of the Bundestag, the lower House of the German legislature, officially began this morning (March 25). According to the February 23 results of the early elections, the largest group in the hemicycle is the conservative Union (CDU/CSU), which has 208 seats out of the 630 total (the latter figure is the ceiling introduced with the 2023 electoral reform, while the 20th legislature closed with 733 members).
With the radical, anti-NATO left of Die Linke, which has grown to 64 seats, the AfD can now form a minority bloc to prevent further amendments to the Constitution, which require two-thirds votes in the House. Precisely to avoid these Caudine Forks, the leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, forced the parliamentary process by having the deputies of the outgoing legislature vote on the historic debt brake reform (Schuldenbremse) on March 18. The Senate (Bundesrat) then finally approved it on March 21, paving the way for adopting a new €3 billion aid package for Ukraine.
As for the composition of the new Bundestag, the youngest MP is 23-year-old Luke Hoss (Linke), while the oldest is 84-year-old Alexander Gauland (AfD). Women make up 32.4 percent of the total (over two percentage points less than in 2021) but are not evenly distributed, ranging from 11.8 percent of the AfD to 61.2 percent of the Grünen. Of the 630 members of the hemicycle, 400 are familiar faces and 230 first-timers.
Negotiations underway for the government
In the meantime, the negotiations to form the next executive — a “grand coalition” between conservatives and social democrats (328 seats out of 630) — have just entered the crucial phase. Just yesterday, the future Bundeskanzler announced the closing of the first phase, but now the real tug-of-war with the SPD partners begins.
According to some observers, the CDU leader has deprived himself of a very powerful bargaining chip, namely the federal budget reform. Now that they have achieved this victory relatively easily, the Socialists seem to have little incentive incentives to cooperate with the Christian Democrats on crucial (but controversial) dossiers such as migration, taxes, and welfare policies.
This situation, analysts argue, strengthens the negotiating position of the SPD, which, despite coming out of the polls defeated, represents the only possible ally for the Union. The Social Democrats are generally opposed to tightening asylum policies. In contrast, Merz has broadly announced a crackdown with a program – on which he may get the support from the AfD, a party he has shown no disdain in aligning with – that includes closing borders, the use of pushbacks, and the end of family reunifications.
However, pressure is growing (even from within the party itself) on the Social Democrats not to get in the way of negotiations, prolonging political instability in Berlin. The leader of the CDU has said that “confidence is growing” among the negotiating teams. As he signaled in the aftermath of the elections, he expressed confidence in closing the coalition agreement by Easter on April 20. However, there is no assurance he will meet the deadline.
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