Brussels – “If Europe wants to avoid war, it must get ready for war.” Ursula von der Leyen speaks to Danish cadets in Copenhagen and is more explicit than ever from the very beginning of her speech. Anticipating the themes of the White Paper on Defence that the European Commission will present tomorrow, she points to the closest enemy, Russia, the distracting ally, the U.S., and thus the need for the European Union to go it alone to protect its survival. Speaking to the Danes, she again assures “all citizens of Greenland, and Denmark in general, that Europe will always defend sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Then, welcoming Denmark’s decision to increase its military spending to 3 per cent of GDP, she cautions that in recent decades, “we have quickly convinced ourselves that this truly exceptional period, which saw the fall of the Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall and entire nations and peoples set free, was a new norm.” According to her, this “led to underinvestment in defence and, frankly, to over-complacency. Our adversaries have used that time not only to remobilise. But also to challenge the rules that govern global security.”
Today, however, “the era of the peace dividend is long gone.”
According to von der Leyen, “The security architecture we used to rely on can no longer be taken for granted. The era of spheres of influence and competition for power is well and truly back. Just take Russia. We already know its determination to deny other countries the right to choose their own path. And now Russia is on an irreversible path toward creating a war economy. It has massively expanded its military-industrial production capacity. Forty per cent of the federal budget is spent on defence. Nine per cent of its GDP. This investment fuels its war of aggression in Ukraine while preparing it for future confrontation with European democracies.”
And just “as these threats increase, we see our oldest partner—the United States—move their focus to the Indo-Pacific.”
Therefore, says von der Leyen, “Now is the time to speak honestly so that every European understands what is at stake. Because the discomfort of hearing these words pales in the face of the pain of war. The point is that we must see the world as it is—and we must act immediately to face up to it. Because a new international order will be formed in the second half of this decade and beyond.”
And here, the Commission chairwoman ventures a radical paradigm shift: in the face of these challenges, “Do we keep re-acting to each challenge in an incremental and cautious way?
Or are we ready
to grasp this opportunity to build a more secure Europe? One that is prosperous, free and ready, willing and able to defend itself. The answer is clear. The choice is none.”
Europeans, the German policymaker argues, are “ready to take control of the change that is inevitable. Because we cannot afford to be pushed around by history. This means acting now is a must. Acting big is a sine qua non for speed, scope and force by 2030.”
By 2030, Europe must have a strong European defence posture. And she launches the slogan “Readiness 2030”which means “having re-armed and developed the capabilities to have credible deterrence. “Readiness 2030,” she stresses, means having a defence industrial base that is a strategic advantage. But to be ready for 2030, we need to move now.”
Von der Leyen assures that, as on the other hand the Treaties stipulate, “Member states will always retain responsibility for their own troops, from doctrine to deployment, and for the definition of the requirements of their armed forces. But there is a lot that is needed at the European level. And tomorrow we will present a roadmap for ‘Readiness 2030′”.
The president then lists four priorities. “The first and main priority is an increase in defence spending,” she says, explaining that the current one “is still far lower than that of the United States, Russia and China.” She then recalls here the plan already launched to unlock €800 billion in European defence investment, with a new tool, called SAFE, “which can quickly unlock €150 billion for member states.” This, she assures, “will help us buy better, buy faster and buy more European. And it will facilitate joint procurement” while remaining “in alignment with NATO.” But it is necessary “to help member states increase their defence budgets. That is why we propose to activate what we call the National Escape Clause. This will give countries much more flexibility to spend more on defense without
falling foul of
fiscal rules.” According to the Commission’s calculations, this holds the potential to mobilise additional defence expenditure of up to 1.5 per cent of GDP, “or some €650 billion over the next four years,” while working “to also attract private financing— whether from the EIB or on the capital markets.”
Second point: “We need to fill our capacity gaps. And we need to do it in a European way. This means large-scale pan-European cooperation to address gaps in priority areas.” It starts with key elements such as infrastructure and military mobility. “By 2030,” she explains, “we will need a functioning Europe-wide network of land corridors, airports and seaports that facilitate the rapid transport of troops and military equipment. At the same time, we need to invest in air and missile defence, artillery systems, ammunition and missiles.” Not forgetting drones, as Ukraine taught, “Europe must develop all kinds of unmanned systems and the advanced software and sensors behind them.” The same goes for cyber, the use of military AI or quantum computing. “The scope, cost and complexity of projects in these areas are far beyond any single member states’ capacity,” she cautioned, “But together, as Europeans, we can master this challenge.”
“Increasing support for Ukraine” is the third priority. This “is what we call the steel
porcupine
strategy. Because we need to make Ukraine strong enough to be indigestible to potential invaders. So, we have to invest in Ukraine’s strength. In deterrence through denial,” she warns. “To help make this a reality, we will set up a joint task force with Ukraine to coordinate EU and member states’ military support to Ukraine.” But Ukraine support us too, “there is much we can learn from the transformation of Ukraine’s defence industry. The innovation, speed, and scope of its industrial base is remarkable. So, we must accelerate Ukraine’s integration into the European defence equipment market. And our industry,” von der Leyen notes, “is learning from the Ukrainian defence industry. Ukrainian industry has the daily battlefield experience, knows how to innovate just in time and produce faster, cheaper and more intelligent.”
Fourth priority: “strengthen the European defence industrial base.“We have,” von der Leyen recalls, “many competitive and world-leading defence companies, and many SMEs that are developing new technologies that are the cutting edge of innovation. “But our industrial base still has structural weaknesses. It is not yet able to produce defence systems and equipment in the quantities and at the speed that member states need. It remains too fragmented,” she explains, “with dominant national players targeting domestic markets. So we need to start with investment in Europe, “we need to buy more in Europe. Because that means strengthening the technological and industrial base of European defence. That means stimulating innovation and creating a EU-wide market for defence equipment.” “We will set up a European military sales mechanism to help help make this happen,” the president announced, explaining that “we put forward a Defense Omnibus to simplify rules and regulations.”
The picture is complex and dangerous, but, von der Leyen assures, “we are stronger than we think,” and we have “partners, friends and allies he can work with and count on,” and, she finally reiterates, “we are fully committed to working with NATO and the United States. Our security is indivisible. That is why we are working to break new ground on security with the UK and other partners in Europe, in our neighbourhood or within the G7. From Canada to Norway. And also in countries as far afield as India and other parts of Asia.”
“Freedom is not a process. It is a constant struggle. It is every generation’s duty
,” she concludes.
These and other defence-related issues will be discussed on April 15 in Rome at the Connact “Joint European defence: financing and industrial integration” series event. The event will be held in Rome, Italy.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
