European defense and Ukraine, with fear of a rift with the US. Deal in the balance at EU leaders’ summit.

Brussels – After weeks of agitated meetings in the most disparate formations, from those of the ‘coalition of the willing’ in the Elysee Palace and London, to the visita of the heads of European institutions and some Western leaders in Kiev to António Costa‘s bilaterals with EU heads of state and government, tomorrow (March 6) is the day of the extraordinary Consiglio europeo. A key appointment tofind out if and how the EU will react to Donald Trump’s diktats on Ukraine and defense, even if – a senior EU official suggests – the summit “will not be the end of the story.” But it is still “weeks that can be worth decades,” as a senior EU source confides.

Indeed, “everything points to the fact that we will make more decisions in the months to come,” says a diplomatic source. But in the meantime, a strong signal must be given on two complementary pillars: European defense and Kiev resistance. If on the first point il piano Rearm Europe and the letter with which Ursula von der Leyen outlined priorities to European leaders paved the way for a downhill agreement among member countries, on the unity to be maintained at a decisive moment for Ukraine’s fate failure is around the corner. On closer inspection, despite Costa’s ostentatious optimism-“if we don’t come to common conclusions, we don’t know what will happen because there has never been any talk of plan B,” diplomatic sources admit-, Hungary and Slovakia have already come out of the closet announcing that they will side-step any willingness to increase military support to Kiev ahead of the negotiations.

The Trumpian and pro-Russian Viktor Orban, who in a letter to Costa clearly outlined Budapest’s opposition to the principles enshrined in the summit’s draft outcome document, is expected in the evening at the Elysee Palace, where Emmanuel Macron will try in extremis to break the stalemate. To give an idea of the delicacy of the debate on Ukraine, suffice it to say that tomorrow, when the 27 address the issue related to Kiev, only the leaders will sit at the table, without the usual accompaniment of the national diplomatic corps in Brussels. No “reporting” will be allowed, nor will cell phone use, diplomatic sources confide.

The cornerstones that, in response to U.S. pressure to reach a rapid ceasefire at the cost of ousting Kiev and Brussels from negotiations, the European Council would like to reiterate are put in black and white in the draft conclusions:there can be no negotiations on Ukraine and European security without Ukraine and Europe’s involvement, a ceasefire “can only take place as part of a process leading to a comprehensive peace agreement,” any agreement must be accompanied by “robust and credible security guarantees for Ukraine,” peace must respect Ukraine’s “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Already on these principles, Budapest and Bratislava are in danger of slipping out. So as not to further tangle things up, the 27 for now will not go into details about what it means to provide security guarantees to Kiev and avoid a repeat of the failed Minsk agreements of a decade ago. As long as it’s about strengthening Ukrainian defense capabilities, at least 25 agree. Make it a sort of “steel hedgehog,” able-with financial, technological and military support from the EU-to provide itself with the guarantees it needs. “I hope this will be made clear,” a senior official said again. But the second pillar in terms of guarantees is understanding “what the EU is prepared to do to contribute directly, particularly by deploying a mission” on the ground.

A “premature” reflection, they cut it short from the Council, which would only further bog down the debate at a time when a strong signal is needed. A signal that, moreover, will be delivered directly to Volodymyr Zelensky, who will participate in presence or by video link in the leaders’ confrontation. Several capitals, Italy foremost, would be stressing the importance of “maintaining the unity of the Western camp,” without reaching irremediable rifts with Washington. Because it is “illusory to be able to find solutions without the participation of the United States” or “to think that member states are capable of being on the ground alone without this kind of cover.” In this sense, the partial mending in corso between the Ukrainian premier and Trump after the public quarrel in the Oval Office could affect the mood of the debate. But Trump’s unpredictability is dangerous, and tomorrow morning EU leaders could wake up to new vitriolic statements overseas.

However, it cannot be ruled out that as early as tomorrow some member states will “say whether or not they are willing” to put military contingents on the table to safeguard future peace in Ukraine. In any case, on this point the EU or NATO umbrella – which Putin strenuously opposes – could be replaced by that “coalition of the willing” that brings together some other Western partners and excludes the most reticent among the 27. “It will certainly be discussed, to start examining what role the EU wants to play in this possible coalition,” a senior official explains. Simple political endorsement, financial support or beyond. The debriefing scheduled for Friday morning in which Costa, von der Leyen, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas will take stock of the situation with the UK, Iceland, Norway, and Turkey should also be read in this sense.

EU united in defense, toward green light for von der Leyen proposals

One diplomatic source speculated that the worst possible scenario could be that, because of frictions over Ukraine (which Costa could circumvent with a weaker declaration by the 25 or the president of the European Council himself), the table would jump and the leaders would give up putting in writing even conclusions on defense. But on the need to “take the necessary actions to be more sovereign and autonomous” there is little room for disagreement, at least at this early stage. “We expect the leaders to invite the European Commission to proceed very quickly with the deepening of the proposals” presented by von der Leyen, they confirm in Brussels.

In essence,the five-point plan presented by the chairwoman of the EU executive includes exemptions from the Stability Pact for defense spending, the creation of an EU facility for loans to member states for joint purchases worth 150 billion euros, the possibility of redirecting part of cohesion funds to military spending, the mobilization of private capital, and the expansion of the role of the European Investment Bank (EIB).

The proposals, “significant,” are still vague. More details will come with the European Commission’s presentation of the Defense White Paper, scheduled for March 19. There some critical issues may emerge, for example, on the terms under which the safeguard clause of the Stability and Growth Pact can actually be activated, on which projects and for which expenditures funds earmarked for Cohesion can be redirected, whether or not joint debt instruments can also be explored. But tomorrow they should all be rowing in the same direction. Again, the conditional is a must: the Polish rotating presidency of the EU Council has summoned the diplomatic bodies of the 27 again tomorrow morning, before the start of the summit. There is only one item on the agenda: the conclusions of the European Council.

English version by the Translation Service of Withub