Brussels – After the earthquake, the aftershocks. The seismic aftershock shaking Ukraine and Europe at this unprecedented stage is not likely to end soon; it has just begun. It is a chain of events set in motion by the acceleration imparted by Donald Trump, which has caught both transatlantic allies and the Kyiv government off guard.
However, now Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be back to having a say, renegotiating with the White House the terms of the agreement on rare earth and critical raw materials, which are at the center of interest from Washington, Moscow, and Brussels. For their part, European chancelleries are trying to coordinate as best they can, hastily coming up with a common response.
The ball back in Kyiv’s court
Three years after the large-scale invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin in 2022 to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine” (itself a dramatic escalation of a crisis that began in 2014), everything came crashing down in the space of a handful of days in mid-February. For a moment – which seemed eternal to both Kyiv and the EU and NATO summits in Brussels – the US president seemed intent on negotiating alone with his Russian counterpart, radically changing the narrative on the bloodiest conflict that has erupted on the Old Continent since World War II (reiterating some of the favorite leitmotifs of Putin propaganda) and excluding both Ukraine and the EU from the negotiating table.
However, as of last night (Feb. 25), the tune seems to have changed. Maybe it will not change the entire symphony, but some critical orchestra members are tuning their instruments better, starting with the Ukrainian leadership. After having refused at least twice the terms of an agreement on granting Washington the rights to exploit his country’s vast mineral resources, Volodymyr Zelensky has finally given the go-ahead for a version of his that would finally be advantageous for Kyiv (or at least not as disadvantageous as previous ones).
Citing Ukrainian sources involved in the negotiations, the Financial Times reported that the green light had finally arrived from negotiators in Kyiv. When meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, the New York tycoon said that the agreement was “very close” and claimed that the Ukrainian leader would fly to Washington in the next few days to sign it in person in the Oval Office, perhaps as early as Friday (Feb. 28). A timeline also confirmed by Ukrainian officials.
Details of the agreement
Zelensky proposed a pact on US privileged access to rare earths, critical raw materials, natural gas, and oil from the former Soviet republic to Trump last September. Beryllium, graphite, yttrium, lanthanum, lithium, scandium, titanium, and uranium are just some of the minerals essential to the strategic sectors at the center of global competition: batteries for the green transition, nuclear power, aerospace, and defense.
However, negotiations became complicated in recent weeks due to the extreme demands of the US administration. The first version was Impractical for Kyiv, especially the White House’s claim to receive $500 billion from Ukrainian state coffers as compensation for aid sent during these three years of war. Too bad that Washington spent just over 114 billion, of which only 4 billion should be repaid (due in 2065).
At any rate, the turnaround – apparently due to a change within the US negotiating team – has made it possible to shape a general framework acceptable to both sides. The Ukrainian government has reportedly already given its assent to the signing of the pact, but Parliament must now approve it.
The text reportedly provides for establishing an ad hoc fund with “joint ownership” between Washington and Kyiv. The latter would contribute 50 percent of the proceeds from the “future monetization” of domestic mineral resources. The fund should finance projects to be launched in the country, presumably related to reconstruction.
Later protocols will define the technical details, like which fields to include in the agreement and what to do with those too close to the front, not to mention those that have ended up under Russian occupation. Above all, an explicit passage on security guarantees is missing. It is a very minor detail, but Ukrainian officials consider themselves satisfied, at least for the moment, that they have assured the support of their most powerful ally.
The “great bargaining”
Thus begins what some observers have already dubbed “the great bargaining.” The rich resources of its subsoil seem to be the last card in the poor hand of the Ukrainian president, and all the actors involved in various capacities in the game underway in the former Soviet republic seek them.
From Washington, Trump is doing what he does best: applying the transactional approach he learned in his past as a businessman to international politics. The White House’s quid pro quo involves the purchase of minerals and hydrocarbons in exchange for aid to Kyiv and is being propped up by threats from the tycoon’s right-hand man, techno-oligarch Elon Musk, to disrupt the services of his Starlink satellite communications network on which the Ukrainian military depends.
On the other hand, the imperialist aims of Moscow – which, as of today, occupies slightly less than one-fifth of Ukrainian territory – are before the eyes of the world. It is clear that in addition to cultural-historical motivations (of a distorted reading of history defended by Putin), access to Kyiv’s mineral resources has always been one of the motives for Russian aggression.
However, the EU has also long had its eye on the eastern neighbor’s underground treasure. As Commission Executive Vice-President Stéphane Séjourné reiterated during Monday’s visit (Feb. 24) in the Ukrainian capital, Brussels entered into a memorandum of understanding with Kyiv in 2021, in which rare earths and raw materials play a crucial role. Of the 30 critical materials identified by the Union, 21 “can be supplied by Ukraine as part of a mutually beneficial partnership,” said the head of the EU Industrial Strategy.
The EU executive offered the full implementation of the already existing agreement, presenting itself as a more palatable alternative than Trump’s United States. The secret weapon at the EU’s disposal is the prospect of membership, on which Ursula von der Leyen has promised rapid progress (“before 2030, if Kyiv continues on the path of reform”), while the White House has put a definitive end to Ukraine’s entry into NATO.
Quo vadis, Europe?
The Commission’s partnership proposal should not be seen as a replacement for the US one but as an additional one. Competing too directly with Uncle Sam, whose security umbrella remains irreplaceable for the Old Continent, could prove short-sighted at this stage.
Although the Europeans continue to hope that the umbrella will stay open (this was the purpose of Macron’s visit to Washington on Monday – on which he briefed his European Council colleagues this morning – and this is what tomorrow’s visit by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will serve), the icy shower of the second Trump term has been a rude awakening from their 30-year post-historical illusion à la Francis Fukuyama.
Continuing to work on close European coordination, today president @EmmanuelMacron debriefed EU leaders on his meeting with @realDonaldTrump earlier this week in Washington.
Very useful to prepare our special European Council on 6 March, where we will take decisions on our… pic.twitter.com/4RRCIJ4vgm
– António Costa (@eucopresident) ###§##
European chancelleries are now rushing to the rescue, trying to coordinate efforts to create the strategic autonomy so often talked about but difficult to achieve. It started with a double round of meetings at the Élysée. It will continue on Sunday (Mar. 2) with a meeting in London to discuss financing the continent’s rearmament and a joint defense strategy.
“Let’s arm ourselves and go,” is the message from the New York-based tycoon to what, on paper, would be his closest allies. As he pursues negotiations with Putin on the end of hostilities, Trump shifts the responsibility for continental security onto Europe. The prelude has passed. “Now is the time for action, for decisions, for results,” stressed European Council President António Costa yesterday, echoing the favorite refrain of North Atlantic Alliance chief Mark Rutte. Better late than never.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
