Gaza ceasefire seems on the brink of collapse

Brussels – The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip already appears to be on the brink of collapse. Amid surreal plans for mass deportations and failure to release the hostages, there are increasing doubts about the ability (or willingness) of both sides to keep to the terms of the agreement that temporarily ended more than a year of devastation in the Hamas-controlled Palestinian enclave. While Tel Aviv threatens to resume hostilities, in East Jerusalem, Israeli police raid bookstores, sparking condemnations from MEPs.

The fragility of the truce

Not even a month has passed since the historic three-stage ceasefire that Israel and Hamas signed on Jan. 15, which went into effect four days later, allowing for the suspension of hostilities in Gaza – where the bloody offensive unleashed by Tel Aviv in response to the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks had been ongoing for over 15 months – and was already beginning to teeter dangerously.

Yesterday (Feb. 10), the Palestinian militant group announced that it plans to delay indefinitely the release of Israeli hostages still alive, citing “violations” of the agreement by the Jewish state. Hamas has declared its willingness to proceed with the next hostage and prisoner exchange, scheduled for Saturday (Feb. 15), claiming that yesterday’s announcement aimed to put pressure on Tel Aviv “to fulfill its obligations.”

אם חמאס לא יחזיר את חטופינו עד שבת בצהריים – הפסקת האש תיפסק, תיפסק, וצה “ל יחזור ללחימה עצימה עד להכרעה סופית של החמאס pic.twitter.com/4Cx30kHGvN

– Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) February 11, 2025

In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (against whom the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant) warned today that if the hostages are not released by Saturday at noon, “the ceasefire will end and the IDF (the Israeli Defense Forces, Ed.) will resume heavy fighting until Hamas is defeated.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz already yesterday had put the armed forces “on high alert” with orders to prepare for “any scenario in Gaza.” Finance chief Bezalel Smotrich has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the coalition government if the war does not resume after the return of the hostages.

Trump’s role

After all, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Washington’s stance on the ongoing crisis in the area has hardened significantly – think of the surreal plan of transforming Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” in what has sounded like an outright invocation of ethnic cleansing – and Bibi seems unable to believe that he can count on such a level of intransigence from the all-powerful American ally.

Just yesterday, Trump explicitly refused to recognize nearly 2 million Gazawi refugees the right to return to their land, suggesting instead to deport them permanently to Egypt and Jordan, while the US would take control of the Strip to build there the Las Vegas of the Mediterranean.

Sabotage of negotiations?

For this reason, Hamas finds unconvincing Washington’s commitment to ensuring that Tel Aviv complies with the ceasefire. Israel, in turn, is suspected of having no genuine intention of implementing the painstakingly negotiated plan. Qatari mediators have been sounding the alarm for days about the danger of a breakdown due to Netanyahu’s inflammatory rhetoric and the overly muscular approach adopted by the Israeli delegation in agreeing on the details of the second phase (which should include the return of all hostages still alive and the complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza).

Abu Obeida, spokesman for the militant group, accused the Jewish state of hindering the return of Palestinians to the north of the Strip, blocking the arrival of humanitarian aid, and indiscriminately attacking civilians. No more hostages will be released until Israel “adjusts and compensates for the past weeks,” he said.

Some relatives of the hostages share the reading that Bibi is voluntarily sabotaging the deal. “The deliberate procrastination and Netanyahu’s unnecessary provocative statements have interrupted the implementation of the agreement,” argues Einav Zangauker, mother of a young man still in captivity. Under the agreements, during the first phase of the ceasefire, Hamas is expected to return 33 hostages, 16 of which were already released, and eight are reportedly dead.

The raid on East Jerusalem

And it does not go in the direction of easing relations the raid by Israeli police forces on Sunday (Feb. 9) on the Palestinian Educational bookshop in East Jerusalem, with the destruction of merchandise for sale, the seizing of an unspecified number of books that allegedly potentially “glorified terrorism,” and the arrest of the owner Mahmoud Muna and his nephew Ahmed, who were finally released this afternoon.

“An event of emblematic gravity,” said some PD MEPs (Lucia Annunziata, Annalisa Corrado, Sandro Ruotolo, Cecilia Strada, and Marco Tarquinio). “The destruction of the books inevitably evokes similar episodes from an unacceptable history of the past,” the PD statement continues, referring to the book burning in the Third Reich, emphasizing again that such “unbelievable actions” only occur in “fascist states.”