Slovakia, PM Fico wavers as political crisis deepens

Brussels – These are convulsive days in Slovakia, where national-populist Prime Minister Robert Fico‘s grip on power is increasingly being questioned, both from the streets, where thousands of citizens have demonstrated against the government’s pro-Russian drift, and from the same political forces that make up the majority, plagued by rifts and internal disputes.

The premier has relaunched by announcing amendments to the Constitution that would stand in open conflict with EU law as the prospect of early elections approaches and, with them, potentially, the final reckoning.

The crossfire of oppositions…

The grip seems to be tightening increasingly on Fico, among Vladimir Putin‘s closest allies in the EU along with his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán. On the one hand, undermining him are the oppositions: the parliamentary one, whose various souls have succeeded in coalescing to attempt to unseat him (actually without succeeding, because the vote on no-confidence that was supposed to be held last week was skipped), and the one composed of the civil society associations that are manifesting to demand the resignation of the chief executive.

The main accusations that the people—as well as the minority parties in the House—are levelling at the prime minister regard the erosion of the Rule of Law and democratic structures in Slovakia and, above all, of his increasingly pronounced realignment with the Kremlin, as demonstrated on multiple occasions in recent months: from his appearances on the Putinian propaganda channels to his controversial pre-Christmas visit in Moscow, via the hardening of his rhetoric against Ukraine which he claims is threatening Bratislava’s energy security. Not surprisingly, the slogan of the anti-government protest that over the weekend reached some 30 cities reads “Slovakia is Europe,” to imply that it is not Russia.

So heavy is the pressure the premier feels coming from the streets that last week, after sliding the minority’s motion of censure, he publicly accused the tens of thousands of pro-EU protesters of planning a coup with the help of unspecified “foreign experts.” Who, according to the Russian propaganda vulgate that Fico himself amplifies (as does Orbán), would be the same “Western infiltrators” responsible for organizing in 2014 the Euromaidan in Kyiv, which was actually a spontaneous popular uprising (known in Ukraine as the “Dignity Revolution”) against the pro-Russian drift of then-President Viktor Janukovyč, who later fled and took refuge (as it happens) in Moscow itself.

…and the majority

On the other hand, it is the same majority that supports the government led by the Smer (Fico’s self-styled progressive party, suspended from the European Socialists in October 2023) that is slipping away piece by piece. At the start of the legislature, the coalition executive, whose minor partners are the SNS and the Hlas-SD, had 79 deputies out of the total 150 in the Národná rada, the single-chamber parliament in Bratislava. But since last fall, it has begun to melt like snow in the sun, first with the defeat of three elected members in the SNS and then, yesterday, with the withdrawal of the support by four deputies from the Hlas-SD, two of whom had just been expelled from the party.

For the time being, Fico has refused to resign, arguing that if the impasse is not resolved in the House, there will be no other solution than calling voters back to the polls. It was, moreover, the premier himself who had recently waved the bogeyman of an early vote (which would be the second in just a year and a half) in front of government allies if the latter failed to solve the problems at home. However, the problems appear to be with the premier, who could gamble on leading the country.

Full square, strong atmosphere. There are many of us who will not allow Robert Fico to pull Slovakia out of the EU. And we will do it politely, in a democratic election.

– Michal Šimečka (@MSimecka) pic.twitter.com/AuEPBpdiOR

“We are witnessing in real time the collapse of the fourth Fico government,” commented Progressive Slovakia (PS) leader Michal Šimečka, around whom the parliamentary opposition is rallying and who could be the premier’s challenger in a possible election. The opposition will again seek to impale the prime minister next Feb. 4 in a second censure vote, the outcome of which is difficult to predict given the delicate math of the House.

The gamble on the Constitution

But the premier kicked the ball back into the stands, announcing that a proposal to amend the Slovak fundamental charter would be presented the day before (Feb. 3) and debated in the hemicycle in the March session. Fico has not commented so far on what he calls “political contests” among his allies since, he says, “my game is to change the Constitution.”

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (photo: Joe Klamar/Afp)

Among the changes hinted at by the premier would be the definition of marriage as the union between a man and a woman (implying the legal recognition of these two genders only) and the prohibition of child adoption by same-sex couples. In addition, Fico would aim to insert a clause that legally binding acts issued by the EU shall be disapplied if they “conflict” with the Constitution itself.

This last amendment would constitute a severe vulnus against one of the cardinal principles of the legal system the Union relies on: the primacy of EU law over conflicting national provisions in all member states. A similar case had already erupted in July 2021 when the Polish Constitutional Court challenged the primacy of EU law over domestic rules. The European Commission initiated yet another infringement proceeding against Warsaw (whose government at the time was PiS) and brought the question before the EU Court of Justice in February 2023.