Aviation, EASA 2025 report recommendations for the sustainability of the industry

Brussels – Effective oversight, technology standards, efforts to implement Single European Sky sustainability goals, effective airport action plans, sustainable aviation fuel, incentives to promote innovation, facilitate research, and global cooperation. These are the eight recommendations outlined in the European Aviation Environmental Report 2025 from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)—produced with the support of the European Commission, the European Environment Agency (EAA) and Eurocontrol—to improve the level of environmental protection in civil aviation without compromising safety and to assist the EU in ensuring that the aviation sector contributes to the goals of the European Green Deal.

According to data, the report shows that the number of flights arriving and departing from airports in the EU and EFTA (Liechtenstein, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland) reached 8.35 million in 2023, “a number still 10 per cent below the pre-COVID 2019 level,” and that air traffic growth forecasts stand at 11.8 million annual flights by 2050. Moreover, in 2023, flights departing from EU+EFTA airports emitted 133 million tons of CO2, “or 10 per cent less than in 2019.” Here, “single-aisle and twin-aisle jets accounted for 77 per cent of these flights and 96 per cent of CO2 emissions, while 6 per cent of flights were long-haul (above 4 thousand km) and accounted for 46 per cent of CO2 emissions.” According to the report, the average mass of CO2 emitted per passenger-kilometre declined to 83 grams in 2023, equivalent to 3.3 litres of fuel per 100 passenger-kilometres, and “compliance with the ReFuelEU Aviation sustainable fuels deployment mandate could result in the reduction of net CO2 emissions by at least 65 million tons (47 per cent) in 2050.” To add to the picture, the survey shows that, in 2023, at 98 major European airports, 3.4 million people were exposed to aircraft noise levels of 55 dB Lden and 1.6 million people were exposed to more than 50 daily aircraft noise events above 70 dB. However, it shows that, over the next two decades, fleet renewal could reduce total noise exposure at European airports, as measured by the Lden and Lnight indicators.

The agency recalled that the ReFuelEU regulation on aviation established a minimum supply mandate for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in Europe, starting at 2 per cent in 2025 and increasing to 70 per cent in 2050. A secondary mandate for synthetic electrofuels, starting at 0.7 per cent in 2030 and increasing to 35 per cent in 2050, “underscores their significant emission reduction potential.” Yet, “in 2024, SAF production accounted for only 0.53 per cent of global aviation fuel use,” and, therefore, “significant capacity expansion is needed to meet future mandates and targets.” Now, the production capacity of the SAFs currently under construction could provide the 3.2 billion litres of SAF required by ReFuelEU Aviation in 2030 “but is expected to increase rapidly thereafter.” Their increase will also impact costs: “The prices of SAFs are currently 3 to 10 times higher than those of conventional fuel, although they are expected to decline substantially as production technologies develop,” the report says. In addition, the survey notes that over the period 2013–2023, “EU ETS led to a net reduction in CO2 emissions in the aviation sector of 206 billion litres through financing linked to emission reductions in other sectors, including 47 billion litres in the 2021–2023 period (about 35 per cent of the Netherlands’ CO2 emissions in 2022),” and “allowance prices in the EU ETS system have increased in recent years, reaching an average annual price of more than €80 per ton of CO2 in 2022 and 2023.”

In this context, the report makes the eight recommendations to ensure that the aviation sector also plays its part in achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. First, ensuring effective oversight and progress toward policy goals based on improved EASA reporting, data, and sector analysis, with closer cooperation between European organizations and member states. The second recommendation calls for technology standards to boost innovation, agreeing on “ambitious standards on CO2 and noise for new types of aircraft”, reviewing “the current Nox emission standard for aircraft engines”, and improving “emission measurement procedures.” Third, the report recommends intensifying efforts to implement the sustainability goals of the Single European Sky and, as a fourth point, implementing effective airport action plans: “Promote on-site generation of renewable energy at airports, with the support of the Connecting Europe Facility, to electrify ground operations and mitigate impacts on noise, air quality and climate” and, “in line with ReFuelEU Aviation, take all necessary measures to facilitate access to and adoption of SAF through infrastructure investments, cooperation with supply chain stakeholders, financial incentives, and supportive policies/governance frameworks.”

The fifth recommendation is for sustainable aviation fuel, reducing the price gap between SAF and fossil fuels by building on the Green Deal business plan, allocated ETS allowances, and ReFuelEU aviation support measures, promoting SAFs, and identifying how to optimize aviation fuel composition, both fossil and SAF fractions, to mitigate overall climate and air quality impacts. As a sixth recommendation, the report advances the call for market-based incentives to promote innovation in sustainability, “including through the implementation of the EU’s taxation system for aviation activities.” Finally, it recommends facilitating research and implementation of solutions by increasing resources and intensifying green diplomacy and technical collaboration with partner states to address global aviation sustainability challenges.

This is the position of Brussels. But just yesterday (Jan. 13, 2024), the independent environmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) has sounded the alarm with a survey of its own on the projections of aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, according to which, in 2050, air traffic passengers will double from 2019 levels, with a 59 per cent increase in fuel consumption: “a rate of growth completely incompatible with the EU’s sustainability goals,” the organization commented. On this basis, it suggested that the EU take action to “stop the expansion of airport infrastructure in Europe,” “to halve the number of corporate trips compared to 2019 levels,” to similarly address “the phenomenon of frequent flights and reverse the under-taxation the sector has always enjoyed.”

According to T&E data, aircraft departing from EU airports in 2050 will still burn 21.1 million tons of fossil kerosene, equivalent to the extraction of 1.9 billion barrels of crude oil per year. And the increase in SAFs will not be enough: “The exponential growth of the sector will mean that the fossil kerosene used by the sector as of 2049, in terms of absolute quantities, will still be equal to that used in 2023, despite an increasing share of SAFs, which under the ReFuelEU regulations will have to account for 42 per cent of the fuel used,” the survey says. In more detail, the analysis points out that airlines have two main alternatives to fossil kerosene: biofuels, “often unsustainable or less scalable,” and synthetic fuels (e-fuels), “produced from renewable electricity.” According to T&E’s study, by 2050 (the year when the target for SAFs will rise from 42 to 70 per cent), European aviation could use 24.2 million tons of bio-kerosene; however, 80 per cent of this is likely to come from feedstocks that are not truly sustainable. As for e-fuels, which are “more sustainable and scalable than biofuels,” T&E pointed out that they will not be able to keep up with the rapid growth of the sector expected by aircraft manufacturers. Moreover, “the production of such fuels requires large amounts of energy: the energy needs of European aviation (585 TWh) would correspond to almost twice Italy’s total electricity demand in 2023 (312.7 TWh).”

In this context, T&E pointed out that “with the growth levels projected by the industry, the benefits of using SAFs will be virtually nullified” and that “SAFs are a viable solution only if exponential growth in air traffic is avoided.” So, should the growth scenario projected by Airbus and Boeing become real, “emissions from the European aviation sector in 2049 would be just 3 per cent lower than in 2019,” and, in 2050, “the sector will still emit 79 million tons of CO2: at this rate of growth, European aviation will exhaust its carbon budget by 2026.”

“The growth plans envisioned by aircraft manufacturers are totally irreconcilable with Europe’s climate goals and the scale of the climate crisis. Within a year, the industry will have exhausted its carbon budget. These numbers leave one speechless. A paradigm shift is needed; otherwise, European aircraft will end up consuming the resources of other sectors. The credibility of the entire industry is at stake,” commented Carlo Tritto, Sustainable Fuels Manager at T&E Italia.

The European Commission’s reduction plan calls for a 90 per cent cut in emissions by 2040 from 1990 levels, and all sectors, including aviation, will need to take action to stay in line with that target. “But, based on the Commission’s impact assessment, T&E calculated that even with an average annual growth of 1.4 per cent between 2023 and 2050—that is about 60 per cent less growth than Airbus and Boeing predicted—the sector’s emissions in 2040 would be 46 per cent higher than in 1990, a level insufficient to achieve climate neutrality.”

So, for the organisation, “if no further policies are introduced to control this growth, the sector’s emissions will not decrease fast enough.” For this reason T&E urged the European Commission and member states “to take action to stop the expansion of airport infrastructure in Europe, halve the number of corporate trips from 2019 levels, similarly address the phenomenon of frequent flying, and reverse the under-taxation the sector has always enjoyed.” While, in the absence of such policies, if Airbus and Boeing’s predictions come true, according to T&E’s stipe, 960 million additional tons of CO2 could be emitted Europe-wide between 2023 and 2050 compared to the Commission’s models.

A 90 per cent emissions reduction target “is completely meaningless without concrete policies to reduce aviation emissions. This sector has received many benefits throughout its history; now, it is time to change. The EU must devise a plan to address the tons of emissions generated by aviation every year,” Tritto concluded.