Brussels – The Russian-Ukrainian war, trade tensions with China, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, the ECB’s rate choices, and, especially, the formation of the new European Commission: there were many and all-different events in an eventful year that affected the European Union closely. Eunews continues in its now traditional exercise of selecting events that are deemed significant, always in keeping with the formula of this exercise. Here, then, is 2024 for the EU from the beginning to the end, according to Eunews:
ACCESSION PROCESS AND EU ENLARGEMENT: 2024 marks another step forward in the EU enlargement process. On June 25, accession negotiations officially began for Ukraine and Moldova two years after they applied, with Moldova passing a referendum in October that included constitutional changes functional to its membership. It is a historic moment for the countries concerned and for the Union as a whole. However, it took a hit in Georgia, where the accession process is on hold following political developments marked by the assertion of pro-Russian forces.
BYE BYE HIGH INTEREST RATES : 2024 is the year that marks the European Central Bank’s easing of monetary policy as it begins to cut interest rates since they were raised to counter rising inflation. Rates are cut on four occasions: in June, September, October, and the end of December. A total of one percentage point is cut in 2024.
CRISIS IN GERMANY AND FRANCE: In Germany, there is a government crisis, prompting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to call new elections (scheduled on Feb. 23), while in France, Michel Barnier’s government fell. 2024 lays bare the extremely weak situation of the countries that have traditionally pulled the strings of the EU, with no more leaders and no more key states.
DEFENSE AND ITS INDUSTRY: it is the EU’s new priority. Geopolitical tensions, Trump’s return to the helm of the United States, and the involvement of new players (Iran and North Korea) in the Russian-Ukrainian war are prompting the EU to think more and more about the grand revitalization of a sector considered increasingly strategic. Ursula von der Leyen creates a commissioner responsible for this; it is the first time in the history of the EU — a peace project — that arms and ammunition production is on the political agenda. It starts with strengthening joint projects, but the goal is to allow increasing investment in the sector.
ENERGY: 2024 for the EU is all about work and reasoning on energy. On the one hand, the Green Deal, with sustainability goals advancing work on renewables and green sources to power the EU and its economy; on the other, sanctions on Russia to restrict business with Gazprom and Lukoil altogether. Tensions on this emerge, with Ukraine announcing an end to all Russian gas and oil transit along its pipes and distribution network, leading to concerns in Hungary and Slovakia.
FITTO: Raffaele Fitto became a key player in the EU, serving as executive vice president in the second von der Leyen Commission. He is the first Conservative Group (ECR) representative to have such a prominent role. The success of Fratelli d’Italia in June’s European elections prompts the Italian government to nominate Fitto, the minister for Cohesion in office at the time of the proposal. The name generates tensions within the European Parliament, where militancy within a party considered un-European and too right-wing is not welcome. At the end of a long and tense tug-of-war, Fitto gets the job.
GREEN DEAL: The ambitious sustainable innovation agenda is not disappearing, but it is starting to become less ambitious. The election campaign first, and then post-election political pledges, bring a shift to the EU’s green and digital revolutions. The EPP and von der Leyen say they are willing to revise some aspects in the sense of more flexibility and, consequently, different degrees of ambition.
HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM: the Syrian rebel group, which following years of war, managed to enter the Syrian capital of Damascus, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee. It is probably the moment that marks the end of a civil war that has been going on since 2011. It is not good news for the EU since the organization is considered terrorist by the EU and its main allies (the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom). The taking of power by the jihadist group is likely to complicate relations between Syria and the West, with all the repercussions for stability in the region.
ISRAEL: 2024 marks the lowest and most complicated historical moment in EU-Israel relations. The Jewish state’s right to defend itself against Hamas attacks is neither challenged nor called into question, but the response of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is on trial. The EU’s high representative for foreign policy, Josep Borrell, pours down repeated criticism of human rights violations and war crimes. Borrell himself goes so far as to call for suspending part of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. On November 21, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister for crimes against humanity, with the EU divided on the implementation of the measure.
KYIV: Ukraine remains on the European agenda of EU leaders and institutions for a Russian-Ukrainian conflict that not only does not stop but even extends. North Korea begins supplying troops to Russia, and Iran offers assistance through drone supplies. Support for the Ukrainian president remains unconditional, with the EU in 2024, with a one-year delay, managing to deliver the promised one million munitions as a response measure to the Russian aggressor.
LETTA AND DRAGHI: The two former Italian prime ministers (April 2013-February 2014 and February 2021-October 2022, respectively) led the way for their contribution to reviving the EU economy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen relied on them to provide the recipe for a new twelve-star course. In April, Enrico Letta published the report for completing and strengthening the single market, a building block crucial to increasing the EU’s weight on the international chessboard.
In early September, Mario Draghi’s report on competitiveness was released (which Eunews translates in full in Italian), with the strategy that should serve the new legislature. So, there is a lot of Italy in the EU in 2024, offering a contribution through two esteemed people with an ironclad pro-European commitment.
MERCOSUR: On December 6, there was the announcement of the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, plus Venezuela suspended). It marks a historic moment that closes a 25-year-long negotiating process but divides European governments. France criticizes it, as does Italy. Farmers fear backlash for the sector and threaten new protests.
NATO: 2024 also marks a further enlargement of NATO, with another EU state joining. On March 11, it was Sweden’s turn to join the Atlantic Alliance Organization. Sweden is the 32nd member country of NATO, the 23rd EU country (along with Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Also, in 2024, the NATO secretary general changed, with Dutchman Mark Rutte taking the lead.
ORBAN: Hungary’s prime minister took center stage in Europe, breaking ranks with an EU determined to flex its muscles against Russia. Hungary’s six-month presidency of the EU Council saw Orban star in diplomatic missions that split the EU. On July 1, Budapest assumed the rotating presidency. A few days later, Orban flew to Moscow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A trip that irritated so much that member countries and representatives of EU institutions boycotted informal meetings organized by the Hungarian government in Budapest. First, the Commission canceled the traditional trip to the capital of the member state holding the rotating presidency; then, the ministers held their informal meeting in Brussels. At the leaders’ summit in December came the lunge of the Ukrainian president, Volodymir Zelensky: “Orban has no mandate for any kind of negotiations.”
PRC AND TARIFFS WAR: 2024 is the year of the EU-China trade clash. The European Commission first announced — then imposed — tariffs on battery electric cars produced by Chinese companies and sold in the single market. Beijing responded with tariffs on “made in EU” products, including spirits. The EU brought the dispute to the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is the beginning of a full-blown trade war.
QUESTIONING THE EU: In2024, the EU was marked by community institutions besieged by farmers up in arms against European policies: the Green Deal with targets considered excessive and penalizing, and trade negotiations – foremost among them Mercosur – considered detrimental to the sector and to quality, bring tractors from all over Europe under the European Parliament, both in Brussels and Strasbourg and under the headquarters of the EU Commission and Council. Straw was set on fire, and manure dumped in the streets were among the forms of protest against a Europe perceived as distant from the interests of a part of Europeans.
ROMANIA: on December 6, the Romanian Constitutional Court shocked the EU with its decision: presidential election must be redone because they were conditioned and, therefore, irregular. It is the first time elections have been declared invalid in an EU member state, and the reason is Russia’s interference through campaigns designed to influence voting intentions.
SCHENGEN: Bulgaria and Romania made their first entry into the free movement area, with the lifting of air and sea border controls on March 31. Land border controls remain, but the Schengen area was enlarged.
TRUMPISM: Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, with the European Union fearing a deterioration of transatlantic relations. In his previous term, Trump stood out for his muscular approach to the European Union, initiating tariff wars on the basis of protectionist policies. That is why Trump’s return to the House worries in Europe.
UNITED TO THE RIGHT: European elections delivered a European Union in the hands of the right. The European People’s Party (EPP) is confirmed as the leading party, increasing support and seats. The Socialists held up, while liberals and greens lost. In this scenario, the nationalist, Eurosceptic, and ultra-right forces advanced. The EPP starts to flirt with them, giving evidence and showing strength by beginning to vote with conservatives (ECR) and part of the sovereignists (ESN) on dossiers that show what is likely to be an all but isolated reality of the new European legislature. The November 14 vote on the deforestation regulation is one of the first proofs of this. The EPP can do without its traditional allies. It is Europe moving to the right.
VON DER LEYEN’S SECOND TERM: 2024 is the year of the EPP’s victory in the European elections, paving the way for a second term for Ursula von der Leyen as the head of the European European Commission. The outgoing president is reappointed, first by leaders on June 27, and then voted in by the new European Parliament on July 16. The College of Commissioners received a vote of confidence on November 27 at the end of delicate political negotiations marked by tensions and arm-wrestling between the various camps. It is the first time a woman has won a second consecutive post at the head of the EU executive and the second time in EU history that the same person has led the Commission for two terms in a row (the first was Portugal’s José Manuel Barroso, 2004-2009 and 2009-2014).
WESTERN BALKANS: 2024 is the year that marks an acceleration of the integration of the countries in the area into the European Union. The EU decided to bring Albania, Montenegro, northern Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo into the single market. It is a whole new process — a pre-accession with economic integration pending political integration. It is the EU responding to the Russian advance westward.
X: an ‘institutional crisis’ between the well-known social platform and twelve-star politics. After Elon Musk decided to campaign for Donald Trump and after Trump decided to include Musk in his government team, many in Brussels began to question whether and how sustainable it is to continue using X and its instant messaging service. Reputable newspapers such as the Guardian have already abandoned the platform, and so has the Press Federation. In the European Parliament, people are beginning to ask journalists how they would take the landing of Parliament’s social communication on other shores.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
