Belin (ECFR): The French refused to give power to an extreme right wing with too many amateurs

Brussels – “The main lesson of the results of these legislative elections is that the majority of French voters rejected the far right and refused to give it the power to govern,” according to Célia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), commenting on the vote for the renewal of the French Parliament and pointing out that “candidates from the left and the center withdrew in favor of each other to block the far right” and this “tactical vote prevented many candidates of the National Rally (RN) from continuing their rise.”

“Despite good results in the European parliamentary elections and the first round of legislative elections, Le Pen’s RN has shown that it is not ready to govern. Despite its normalization strategy in recent years, the campaign revealed that its platform continues to be extreme and that many of its local candidates are amateurs and/or extremists,” Belin said. The researcher recalls how “videos of local candidates offering images of incompetence, radicalism, and outright racism circulated widely between the two election rounds.”

 Be that as it may, RN also did well in terms of votes in the second round. “RN got more than 37 percent of the French vote,” Belin points out, “much more than Nouveau Front Populaire (26pct) and Macron’s Ensemble (23pct), but they finished third in the polls. Their continued radicalism and isolation in French politics is why they continue to underperform when these scores translate into seats.”

The results also confirmed the three-way split in the French electorate between a leftist, a centrist, and a far-right bloc. “Since no bloc obtained an absolute majority – or is even close to it – no one can claim the legitimacy to govern,” she continued. “France is entering a ‘third round’ of its legislative elections as negotiations are beginning and could last days or weeks.

Without a clear winner, there is great uncertainty about who will govern France, and “the antagonism between France Insoumise (LFI) and the Macron camp limits the possibility of a grand coalition of the left and center. So far, President Macron has never demonstrated the willingness or ability to negotiate on his political platform to form a coalition, leading to a likely divided coalition with conflicting views on key issues such as pensions and immigration,” the scholar said.

 As for foreign policy, the results assure that there will be no major changes. “The Constitution provides that the President retains many prerogatives,” Belin points out, “especially in the case of a technical or grand coalition government, where Macron’s foreign policy ambitions will not be challenged. A new government will likely focus on domestic issues rather than foreign policy. However, French politics will remain divisive and difficult to manage, which will diminish France’s weight on the European and international stage.”

 In the coming days or weeks, Macron will explore ways to retain power by building a coalition around his centrist group. “While the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire claims legitimacy to govern due to its high score, Macron might be willing to open up to the right-wing Les Républicains and other small right-wing groups, which obtained just over 60 seats. That would not be enough for an absolute majority, but it could allow the formation of a center-right minority government,” Belin forecasts.