Brussels – The joint work of Paris and Berlin before and then the speech of the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, from the podium of the Strasbourg hemicycle: After months of work, the Berlaymont services have drafted a document on EU pre-enlargement priorities to chart the course of the future European Union, with ten countries already waiting at the door to join the common project: “The EU must deepen as it widens. We must start preparing today for the Union of tomorrow and use enlargement as a catalyst for progress,” reads the communication published today (March 20) by the von der Leyen cabinet, three weeks behind schedule.
The paper, focusing on pre-EU-enlargement reforms and policy reviews, is part of the current debate within the Union institutions on preparing for a significant expansion of the common project, with implications in four main areas: values, policies, budget, and governance. Although the “success” in maintaining a “rigorous” accession process is acknowledged, it is equally undeniable that “while reforms were necessary before, with the enlargement, they become indispensable” because a Union of 32 (with candidates who have already started accession negotiations), 36 (with even those who have received candidate status) or 37 (with everyone in, including Kosovo), in which one country can keep the entire common decision-making system stalled, is unthinkable. That is why, “thanks to the lessons learned from previous enlargements,” the Commission identifies “gradual integration” as the turning point for preparing countries “already before of accession.” 
As far as values are concerned, “the defence of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights”, which “continue to drive a deep-rooted transformation in the EU enlargement countries“, remain inescapable and will be strengthened “consistently throughout the Union, beyond accession.” As for the budget, it is acknowledged that the precise financial impact of EU enlargement “will depend mainly on its timing, scope, and the outcome of the merit-based accession negotiations,” but in any case, it will have to be taken into account when determining the next Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034. On the governance front, the commission favours a reform of the Treaties. However, it raises the possibility of using “the full potential” of what is already within the Union’s possibilities, “such as the ‘passerelle clauses'” that allow for a shift from unanimity to qualified majority in the council in key areas.
There are also consequences on the policy front. “While not being without challenges, a larger Union expands the many benefits of the Single Market,” the commission points out. First and foremost, it improves connectivity, reducing logistics costs and smoothing trade flows, with “tangible” economic benefits to consumers and businesses. Maintaining current commitments on climate and the environment is crucial, particularly for “the enormous potential in renewable energy and energy efficiency” and on food quality and safety: “A key challenge of future EU enlargement will be to strengthen the capacity of the Common Agricultural Policy and support a sustainable and competitive agrifood production model while accommodating the needs of farmers and the variety of agricultural models.” Conditions for social, economic, and territorial convergence will have to be created with policy reviews “to close legislative and enforcement gaps.” Finally, the maintenance of strong commitments on security, migration, and border management: “A larger Union could, at least initially, entail a greater diversity of external policy interests and agendas,” and, therefore, reforms should look into “the Union’s credibility and capacity to act,” including decision-making.
Where does EU enlargement stand
Of the six Western Balkan countries that have begun the long road to EU membership, four have already started accession negotiations (Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia), one has received candidate status (Bosnia and Herzegovina-), and the last has formally applied for and is awaiting the response of the EU (Kosovo). For Tirana and Skopje, negotiations began in July last year, after waiting eight and 17 years, respectively, while Podgorica and Belgrade have been in this stage for 11 and nine years, respectively. After six years of applying for EU membership, Sarajevo became a candidate on December 15, 2022, to join the Union (and now awaits the start of accession negotiations), while Pristina is in the most complicated position since the formal request sent in late 2022: since the unilateral declaration of independence from Belgrade in 2008, five EU member states (Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Spain, and Slovakia) continue to fail to recognize it as a sovereign state. 
The upheaval in EU enlargement began four days after the Russian armed aggression when, amid the war, Ukraine applied for “immediate” membership in the Union, with the application signed on February 28, 2022, by President Zelensky. Demonstrating the irreversibility of a process of rapprochement with Brussels as a clear reaction to the risk of seeing its independence from Moscow erased, three days later (March 3), Georgia and Moldova also decided to take the same path. The European Council of June 23, 2022, approved the line drawn by the commission in its recommendation: Kyiv and Chișinău became the sixth and seventh candidates for EU membership, while Tbilisi was recognized as having a European perspective in the EU enlargement process. In the EU Enlargement Package 2023, the commission recommended that the Council open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova (as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina when compliance with accession criteria is achieved) and to grant Georgia candidate status. The December EU leaders’ summit then accepted all demands.
On the other hand, negotiations for Turkey‘s accession to the European Union were launched in 2005 but have been frozen since 2018 due to backward steps on democracy, rule of law, fundamental rights, and independence of the judiciary. In the chapter on Turkey in the latest annual Enlargement Package presented in October 2022, it was put down on paper that it “does not reverse course and continues to move away from EU positions on the rule of law, increasing tensions over border respect in the Eastern Mediterranean.” At the NATO summit in Vilnius at the end of June, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, tried to force his hand, menacing to approve Sweden’s membership in the Atlantic Alliance only when Brussels opens Turkey’s path back to the EU. The blackmail failed, but the dossier on Ankara was addressed at a strategic report special meeting in Brussels.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
