Brussels – Ursula von der Leyen is officially running for a second term as head of the European Commission: the announcement was not surprising as she has been working toward this goal for some time. The real question is whether she can pull it off, and the impression is that she does. After a bit of a rocky start, she has been able to handle the coronavirus pandemic well and interweave ongoing and important ties with Ukraine after Russia’s aggression; she has pursued her sustainability agenda, perhaps less than flawlessly, but she has charted a course. The CDU believes in her, and supports her, because she is considered a good fit for her profile and role.
The initial uncertainties
Ursula von der Leyen, now 65, was nominated to head the European Commission in 2019 after the French president, Emmanuel Macron, put an end to the ‘spitzenkandidat’ system, the candidate named by the European political parties for the EU executive. The EPP had nominated Manfred Weber, who was vetoed, paving the way for von der Leyen. For many, she was a weak name because she was little known and less experienced than others. She stumbled in the process of appointing her team. In negotiating with governments on names for commissioners, Romania and Hungary submitted candidates that the European Parliament rejected. A mishap that forced the new commission to delay taking office, and for which von der Leyen bears personal and objective responsibility, having herself led the negotiations with member states.
The pandemic crisis
In early 2020, the Coronavirus spread to Europe. It is the beginning of the pandemic that allows von der Leyen to prove her worth. In the not simple because unparalleled situation, the Commission responded with unprecedented measures, the last of which was the creation of common debt to jumpstart the economies of the 2 Member States after the lockdown that effectively stopped the productive fabric. It is the first time the EU has produced common debt instruments. NextGenerationEU, with its Recovery Fund and a 750 billion financial powerhouse in addition to the common budget. Not only: in the face of the health crisis, Member States voluntarily cede sovereignty in a matter of purely national competence such as health care. The von der Leyen Commission becomes responsible for managing and distributing respirators, medical supplies, masks, and, not least, signing contracts with pharmaceutical companies for anti-Covid vaccines. Despite lots of controversy, von der Leyen emerges from the crisis with renewed consensus. She is also good at reigning in the internal EPP political crisis when her chief spokesperson, Eric Mamer, attributes to Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis some inefficiencies on vaccines: she takes responsibility, publicly, a few days later.
Suspension of the stability pact
Faced with the need to jumpstart the economy, von der Leyen opted for the suspension of the stability pact with its limits on government spending. She also loosened the mesh on state aid: also here, unprecedented decisions. She, a German, disavows part of her party, the CDU, the same Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schaeuble, and German rigidity on accounts. She allows Europe to get back on track and record an economic and employment rebound, overcoming the logic of austerity that increases the consensus around the figure of von der Leyen. The path towards the revision of the rules leads to a new conception, culminating in a new pact, considered more credible and feasible, to measure different situations. A reform that comes into force in early 2024, in time before the dissolution of the EU Parliament.
The Russian-Ukrainian war and sanctions
On February 24, 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. It is a new crisis for von der Leyen to deal with and to which she will respond with 11 unparralleled economic sanction packages. She worked with the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, Member States, and G7 partners on measures that effectively isolate Russia from the rest of the world.
Von der Leyen declares war on Russian disinformation, shutting down the single market to the Kremlin’s media, part of whose narrative she obscures: she proved decisive, even too much so. She promises EU membership to the Ukrainian president with an ease that is too much for some. Some argue that there was excessive levity that, however, was dictated by circumstances that became difficult to manage. The process is not short, is fraught with obstacles, and could find opposition from Member States in an enlargement based on the principle of unanimity.
The Green Deal, good intentions but implementation not so good
After all, von der Leyen is also guilty of over-zealousness with her workhorse, that sustainability pact that earned her the investiture of the European Parliament in 2019. She makes good on her promise and launched the maxi agenda for the transition to the green economy, but ends up losing support even from her party for targets and deadlines that are considered overly burdensome, particularly for businesses, but also for citizens. Von der Leyen pushes too hard on the sustainability accelerator, passing on to citizens and households the burdens of house conversion and cars. Also, the automotive reform splits the EU Parliament and Member States, certifying a crisis of confidence for the chairwoman of the European Commission.
Then, there were the issues of sustainability: the way she handled the sustainable agenda became the subject of reservations.. From the European Parliament comes an analysis that warns of possible side effects: The EU risks worsening the water crisis of third countries and further increasing poverty. Von der Leyen ultimately turns out to be unskillful in the implementation of her sustainability strategy, perhaps because of over-eagerness.
The wolf and the EU for personal use.
One of the features that threatens to characterize, in a negative way, von der Leyen’s tenure is the fight against wolves after a pony she owned was found dead following an attack by a wolf. In a hurry, the German politicians sought to widen the net to hunt the predator Europe, despite challenges from Parliament for a census that requires time that von der Leyen does not want to wait. Her problem becomes everyone’s problem, and von der Leyen was accused of wanting to make personalistic use of the European Union. The image of power in the service of her own privileges. Not a good image, which eventually fades.
The rifts with Michel and the desire to appear
On April 9, 2021, von der Leyen went on a mission to Turkey together with the president of the European Council, Charles Michel. However, a chair is missing in the meeting room. Something went wrong in the inspections and preparatory work. Michel does not give up his seat, and from that moment, an all-personal war begins between von der Leyen and Michel that sees the former do everything to never appear with the latter. A real fight begins with tweets, videos, and social messages to be seen and reaffirm their roles as protagonists of the political scene of the European Union.
From 2021 onward, von der Leyen’s legislature is characterized more and more by presidentialism, an obvious desire for prominence, and continuous centralization of initiatives. No one in the Commission knows anything because she starts to let nothing filter through. The machine gets jammed. The Commission becomes Ursula von der Leyen. Far from positive drifts, about which many in the Union executive openly complain.
The crisis in Israel and the disjointed response
On October 7, 2024, Hamas attacked Israel with over three thousand missiles, which caused over 1,100 casualties. The EU responds in an uncoordinated manner. Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varlhely is quick to say that the EU Commission is ready to suspend EU programs for the Palestinians. The Commission had to backtrack the next day through its chief spokesman, Eric Mamer, who was forced to admit the uncoordinated action by Brussels. Von der Leyen does not look good.
English version by the Translation Service of Withub
