What is about to happen after the elections? Operating instructions

The match for European designations has just started. The electoral campaign for the European Parliament has seen its first shots, yet the negotiations for the following peace have been running since a long time. Let’s see the instruments we have at our disposal for elaborating our forecast about the EU main institutional structures.

There is still something the electors can determine. Not much, to be honest, given that we already know what’s going to happen, more or less: the EPP is about to lose a remarkable percentage and lots of seats, while the Socialist will earn some, even though it is still not clear whether they will exceed the EPP in the number of elected MEPs. Polls are still controversial about it. Liberals are to lose about twentyfive-thirty of their MEPs, Greens are to decrease their percentage too, while the left led by Alexis Tsipras is presumably about to get a remarkable success. Even Eurosceptics a populist parties will get their numbers, and some will be able to join their forces, even though the majority won’t. Still, they will be quite an annoyance for anyone in charge.

The Parliament, with its will to propose the candidate for the European Commission Presidency, is not the only actor involved: we have to take into consideration the European Council, the institution composed of governments that is, and is going to be in the following months, composed of an EPP majority – with a powerful free agent, the UK. According to the norms regulating the functioning of the Union in fact, the Council is the institution that, keeping into account the results of the Parliamentary Elections, expresses the candidate for the Commission Presidency, who will have to obtain the vote of confidence by the new MEPs.

There are other two elements to be kept in mind: the geographic origin of the candidates for the EU top positions and, for quite some time, their gender. The current composition of the main EU position follows: a Portuguese man at the Commission, a Belgian man at the Council, a British woman at the External Service and a Dutch man at the Eurogroup. An Italian man at the ECB, too. That is to say, for a little turnover, the next President of the Commission wouldn’t come from south Europe (José Manuel Barroso has already served two terms), yet it would be difficult to have an eastern European at the post – too “recent” to be considered, let’s say. Yet, the East could still take the South position, given that no official candidate for the Mediterranean zone has been expressed. Again, not all the positions could be occupied by eastern candidates, women or men, because the biggest countries of the zone, such as Poland, are not in the Euro area, and this is seen as an handicap for getting at the Commission or the Council (clearly, the ECB and the Eurogroup are excluded as well).

Again, there’s something else to be considered – something which prevented Guy Verhofstadt (now running for post for the Liberals) from becoming President of the Commission: British do not want someone too “pro-Europe” for the post. Without their vote, no one is allowed.

Hence, why shouldn’t we try with a totally arbitrary guess (“Any surprise?” we asked in a recent editorial) taking into consideration the characters on stage now? Presumably, London would veto the S&D candidate for the Commission Schulz (and he’s fighting, making the Conference of Presidents of the European Parliament vote a resolution stating that only the votes will decide the new Head at the Berlaymont). Jean-Claude Juncker, EPP candidate, is not so keen on working hard at the Commission and would rather be the perfect candidate for the Council Presidency (in addition, he’s a popular as the majority of the Head of State or Government, yet with a critic past which is pleasant for non-EPP voters).

Thus, for these two top positions the game is not over yet, even though this time one president will represent the EPP and another the PES – the popular leadership has gone, no Christine Lagarde at the horizon (unless Juncker is gone too, but the Parliament is presumably not going to accept it). The way out the British veto would be a woman, who would also solve the “gender issue”. A woman, politically speaking not too strong, not too “heavy” – sort of a female version of Barroso. Here comes the Danish Prime Minister then, Helle Thorning-Schimdt, S&D, wife of the British Labour former minister and EU Commissioner Neil Kinnok’s son (and this would sound fine to British ears, all things considered); with the excuse of the British veto it would also be possible to go beyond Schulz (is he going to be a MEP?), who is not much appreciated by some others too (first of the list: Angela Merkel) and has no past as Prime Minister. The External Service is still an open issue: maybe Schulz could be destined there, even though that position is perfect for an eastern European candidate. The most famous one is the Polish Radoslaw Sikorski, EPP, with a remarkable curriculum vitae.

Just guess-working, after all.